From technology to cost
LED industry for its excellent performance is generally considered to be the ideal choice for the fourth generation light source, LED light source in luminous efficiency, life, response time, environmental protection and other aspects are better than incandescent, fluorescent and other traditional sources. LED luminous efficiency increased year by year, the demand has reached general lighting applications.
From Cree Results published in 2010, the latest look present its laboratory white LED luminous efficiency of 200lm / w, commercial chips reach 160lm / w, and plans to mass production 200lm / w of the LED in 2013. In light efficiency LED lighting package module is 160lm / w in mind, from the light source to the lamp through the process of loss of which about 50% luminous efficacy luminaire output reached 80lm / w, still more than the current light efficiency fluorescent 60-80lm / w, and and far more than incandescent 10-15lm / w efficiency.
Analytical: LED lighting market drivers
From the luminous efficiency, LED lighting to replace traditional light sources has reached the standard. Currently commercial product has demonstrated the advantages of LED light on the effect, such as LED light bulb screw base design can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs, no need to change the existing cap and line, according to the size and bayonet bulb size division E26 and E17 type, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.
Technically, LED light efficiency has been achieved replace the traditional lighting requirements, the main factors constraining the rapid popularization of LED lighting is its high cost. The main direction of the future development of LED lighting, should not be lm / w represent the technological upgrading, but the $ / lm as the representative of the cost reduction.
In addition to technology and cost, national and regional governments on energy saving positive attitude, incandescent products discontinued and disabling program is to promote an important factor LED lighting alternative to happen. Many countries plan to stop manufacturing around 2012 and prohibit the use of incandescent bulbs, LED with its advantages of energy saving and environmental protection, is the ideal alternative to incandescent, once the appropriate technology and cost, is expected to get governments in policy support on.
LED lighting industry investment opportunities
By analyzing the occurrence of LED TV backlight field fluorescent lamp (CCFL) an alternative procedure can be found in CCFL backlight LED relative price difference between the fastest decline period, LED backlight penetration is a rapid rise time period. LED lighting alternative to traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting will repeat the process.
The difference in the price of LED lighting products and traditional lighting products in the process of rapid decline, LED lighting penetration will increase rapidly. In the LED industry has one from Agilent RolandHaitz proposed Haitz Law, LED industry is considered to be Moors Law. Since LED commercialization, the cost per lumen ($ / lm) decreased by about 20% per year, and in recent years, from the data point of view, the brightness improvement and cost reduction has accelerated the trend.
According to the US Department of Energy predicts the cost of white LED lumen package in 2009 from 25 $ / klm, down to 2015 2 $ / klm, the average annual cost reduction of more than 30%, while 2010--2012 annual average a decline of nearly 40%. In our view, 2011--2012 will be LED and traditional lighting spreads fastest decline period, LED lighting penetration will grow by leaps and bounds produced during this period. According to our estimates, to $ / lm for the unit of measurement, in around 2012, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice a fluorescent lamp, such as the relative LED fluorescent lamp life of about 2.5 times included, it will make around 2012 LED lighting the total cost ahead of fluorescent lighting.
Therefore, we believe that large-scale alternative LED lighting will be at the end of 2011, early 2012 start, 2011--2012 will be the LED lighting industry, an important investment timing.
Currently traditional lighting including fluorescent, incandescent, halogen, HID, each accounted for 36% of the general lighting revenue, 23%, 16%, 13%. With incandescent disabled in various countries, the fluorescent lamps in place of incandescent lamps, LED lamps to replace incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be carried out simultaneously. Since the commercial / industrial enterprises more sensitive to electricity costs, the government business requirements become more stringent energy conservation and other reasons, commercial / industrial use of energy-efficient lighting products showed more positive.
The same will repeat this process on the LED light source replacement, replacement LED lighting products first occurs in the commercial / industrial fields, has been a good role model, and then gradually spread to household lighting......................